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Belgian Grid: System Imbalance Forecast Monitor.

Transparency is the foundation of trust. We don’t just claim higher accuracy; we prove it in real time. Compare our live Belgian System Imbalance (SI) forecast against Elia’s benchmark.

ENVATO_Silhouette of high voltage electric pylons with electrical equipment of power substation at night By aowsakornprapat_V1

 



This dashboard shows a live intra-quarter-hour system imbalance forecast that predicts the final system imbalance for the current quarter hour, becoming increasingly accurate minute by minute. 


  • ML6 Forecast (Orange)

    Our live prediction of the final imbalance value for the current quarter-hour is updated continuously using real-time operational signals.

  • Elia Forecast (Blue)

    The public reference forecast provided by the Belgian Transmission System Operator (TSO).

  • Target (Green)

    The actual system imbalance as measured at the end of the quarter hour.

WHY THIS MATTERS.

The average annual imbalance cost paid by market participants in Belgium reached 188M euros over the last 5 years, 4.3x higher than in the preceding 5 years(1). 

1 Computed based on the imbalance price and system imbalance published by Elia on their Open Data platform.



 

DEEP DIVE.

Dive into the market dynamics driving balancing costs and how we designed a model to outperform the benchmark. And the machinery that keeps this system running, covering streaming ingestion, latency management, and automated monitoring.

  • From Volatility to Value: Outsmarting the Belgian System Imbalance.
    Blog
    AI StrategyMLOps

    From Volatility to Value: Outsmarting the Belgian System Imbalance.

    Executive Summary In liberalized power markets, real-time instability is no longer just an engineering problem - it is a significant financial risk. As the energy transition accelerates, the ability to anticipate system imbalance has become the key to avoiding penalties and capturing value. Belgium serves as a sharp test case for this universal challenge: with an average of €188M in yearly imbalance costs locally, the value of precise, real-time signals is undeniable. This post kicks off a two-part series on how we solved this challenge. We built a production-grade AI system that doesn't just work in theory - it outperforms the Belgian TSO’s own reference forecast by 16% under live, operational constraints. While Part 1 focuses on the intelligence and results behind this edge, Part 2 will reveal the MLOps machinery that keeps it running 24/7.

HOW IT'S DONE.

 

  • Rigorous modeling

    We use the latest research and combine it with rigorous data modeling.

  • Production-grade MLOps

    Our end-to-end MLOps setup enables fast experimentation and continuous retraining.

  • Robust data handling

    We handle data latency, missing signals and real-time constraints from training to inference

WHY WORK
WITH ML6?

Because the energy sector doesn’t need more technology promises — it needs results.
13

years of AI native expertise

400+

AI projects delivered

9/10

is the average NPS score our customers give us

12

weeks of average time-to-value

120+

AI-native experts at your fingertips

17%

of time of our engineers is dedicated to deep tech research

Sam Clauwaert 4
Sam ClauwaertIndustry Director Energy & Utilities

Want to see how our forecasting could benefit your specific portfolio? 

Let's discuss how our team of specialists can assist you. 
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Sam Clauwaert 4
Sam ClauwaertIndustry Director Energy & Utilities